Prosecutorial Discretion: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation

How does restricting prosecutorial discretion affect the criminal justice system? Many legal scholars have suggested that setting a minimum plea bargain can reduce the innocence problem (i.e., reduce the number of false convictions in the criminal justice system). We develop a model of the criminal justice system to address this suggestion. We show theoretically that setting a minimum plea bargain can both reduce the innocence problem and slightly reduce crime rates. We implement this model in a laboratory experiment and find that restricting prosecutorial discretion reduces the innocence problem, but has no effect on crime rates. Additionally, we find an unintended consequence of restricting prosecutorial discretion: there is a significant decrease in the rate at which guilty individuals accept plea bargains.